Thursday, June 22, 2017

Redefining the Deep State

It is interesting that the idea of a "deep state" now enjoys wide currency, whereas, as Mac Slavo points out, previously it was dismissed as a conspiracy theory. 

Like many conspiracy theories, the deep state actually exists, it can be tested and demonstrated and illustrated with innumerable historical examples. 

WikiPedia states
“The concept of a deep state suggests that there exists a coordinated effort by career government employees and others to influence state policy without regard for democratically elected leadership.” (Italics mine). 

The entry then correctly notes that the concept of the deep state originated within analysis of the Turkish polity, but admits that the term is achieving wide penetration due to the influential writing of Marc Abinder, David W. Brown, Peter Dale Scott, and Mike Lofgren

The entry then adopts Mr.  Lofgren's definition: 
"I use the term to mean a hybrid association of elements of government and parts of top-level finance and industry that is effectively able to govern the United States without reference to the consent of the governed as expressed through the formal political process." (Italics mine).
Mike Lofgren, The Deep State: The Fall of the Constitution and the Rise of a Shadow Government, 2016. 

This definition deftly explicates the and others that I italicized above, as "parts of top-level finance and industry," a characterization that I accept, though I insist that any definition of the deep state that omits to mention the essential roles of the mainstream media and the alternative media is incomplete.

Indeed, most visible deep state activity today involves weaponized anonymous leaks to media.

While Mr. Lofgren's definition has many correct elements, I do not think that the deep state “effectively governs the United States.” Rather, deep state actors compete and collaborate with other power centers within and without the US government, and sometimes they succeed, and sometimes they fail. They often fall short of the benchmark that Mr. Lofgren proposes of "effectively governing the United States."


External protagonists like President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin perceive, for example, that "there is no change" between Democrat and Republican administrations. 

From Mr. Putin's position as an external observer, the bureaucratic elites that manage government policies on a daily basis remain in place no matter who is elected. 

While this assessment would reinforce a perception that the deep state is monolithic and successful in "effectively governing" America, such an assessment lacks crucial nuance.

Here are links to the Oliver Stone interviews with Vladimir Putin on YouTube. 
Part 1: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=b6YgjFxyT5E
Part 2: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=eVnWsjlBarw
Part 3: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GOeOcnng0to
Part 4: https://youtu.be/avr4gGxNP4k

The Wiki entry on the deep state seems to be obsessed with eschewing the idea that most deep state activity is by definition conspiratorial, as the editors on the article’s talk page fear the label of “conspiracy theorists.” 

I do not fear conspiracy as an historical mechanism, and I think that it would be accurate to say that most deep state actors, depending on how they are comprised on a case by case basis, engage in conspiratorial behavior, particularly when you accept that deep state actors often act as members of cabals

This observation then suggests that some deep state actors conspire in cabals, and that these cabals have some persistence. There are many cabals within the factions of the deep state, and some members of them collaborate with other cabals, or even participate in multiple cabals. But while some cabals are persistent, many come and go. They can be dynamic. 

This may be a reflection of the Special Access Program concept of compartmentalization, a fundamental principle in the intelligence community, which many deep state actors work for, or previously worked for. Compartmentalization is a natural characteristic of conspiratorial deep state behavior. 

Such cabals are often not persistent at all, they form to support specific purposes, and then they dissolve naturally when the purpose that brought them together is resolved. 

What is persistent are the deep state factions from which cabals manifest. It seems self evident that an ill-defined, barely detectable, amorphous entity that often acts in defiance of formal political processes exists. What we cannot define are its margins. 

This essay is an attempt to refine our definition of the deep state and to consequently help us identify its margins and its functioning. 

It is important to add that some deep state members act alone, they do not always conspire with others, aside from their collusion with members of the media. So there are limits to the thesis that deep state actors conspire in cabals. Sometimes deep state leakers act alone, as singletons

I have long said that the dominant struggle of our era is between globalism and nationalism, and one of the primary contemporary battlegrounds is between unelected deep state operatives and our elected government. Deep state activity is hence often illicit, if not illegal, though not always. 

We watch it manifesting in the mainstream media almost every day. But deep state phenomena originates from within government, and sometimes from outside government, from former government employees or appointees, from lobbying firms, from think tanks, from corporations, or Wall Street, or from organizations like the Council on Foreign Relations, or the Trilateral Commission, or even the Bilderberg Group

This observation accounts for infamous deep state operators like former Vice President Richard Cheney, surely one of the apex deep state operators of all time, former Director of National Intelligence John Negroponte, and former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger

I think that the Trump administration proposal to reduce the size of government must be seen within this context. If you reduce the size of government, you reduce the very financial oxygen that some elements of the deep state suck in order to exist. 

I believe that shrinking the size of the government will also curtail the number of those bureaucrats who engage in deep state activities. Smaller budgets will force them to prioritize statutory responsibilities, and leave them with less time to plot. 

Mr. Stephen Bannon, Chief Strategist for the President, calls this concept, "the deconstruction of the administrative state." 

I also suspect that the liberal elite media collusion that dominates mainstream consciousness today is orchestrated by a cabal led by former director of the Hillary Clinton campaign, John Podesta

Mr. Podesta has a long pedigree in government service, serving as White House Chief of Staff for President Clinton, but most interestingly for this discussion, between 1994-6, he was appointed by President Clinton to the Commission on Protecting and Reducing Government Secrecy, also known as the Moynihan Secrecy Commission. 

As a result of this appointment, Mr. Podesta rubbed shoulders with mandarins of the intelligence community like former DCI John M. Deutch, former Director of the National Reconnaissance Organization Martin C. Faga, and Mr. Maurice Sonnenberg, member of the President's Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board

Mr. Podesta was long in government service, so even though he was not a formally trained intelligence officer, he was in a position to soak up enabling skills: the cellular organization of Special Activity Programs and similar entities, compartmentalization, and other tradecraft.

One thing that Mr. Podesta did not learn: cybersecurity. And this was his downfall, resulting in the contents of his Gmail inbox published on WikiLeaks, in a series of breaches which may have cost his candidate the 2016 presidential election.

The WikiLeaks Podesta email breach exposed Clinton campaign and media collusion in irrefutable detail. It appears that the cabal coordinated by Mr. Podesta persists, coexists and collaborates with a remnant shadow government within the Obama Foundation

The incipient Obama political machine harbors former National Security Advisor Susan Rice, former Director of Central Intelligence John Brennan, and protagonists like Dr. Evelyn Farkas, a former Deputy Assistance Secretary of Defense who shamelessly admitted leaking classified information on MSNBC.

We got an historic glimpse into the ways that such cabals operate with the Podesta email leaks published by WikiLeaks. Those leaks revealed many other secrets, but media collusion is one that is less contentious: it was indisputable. 

I have said that the deep state is not monolithic, it is characterized by dissident and loyalist conspiratorial cabals and singletons, it is not broadly cohesive, it is amorphous, dynamic and fluid, and most importantly, there are factions within the deep state, and President Donald J. Trump has his own deep state defenders and his own loyalists among them. 

Trump supporters in the deep state are leaking to 4chan, to InfoWars, to Breitbart, to Dr. Steve Pieczenik, to the inimitable political operative Roger Stone, to YouTube journalists Mike Cernovich, Jack Posobiec, and David Seaman, and even to me.

You have to ask whether such leakers can properly be considered as part of the deep state, as they support the elected government. I think that they must be included in our refined definition of the deep state. 

They remain part of those bureaucratic and extra-governmental  elites that persist across elections, they collaborate with actors within government contractors, think tanks, lobbying firms, and both defense corporations and Wall Street, and they function secretly, favoring whispers and weaponized leaks. 

It does not matter whether deep state operatives favor or disfavor the elected government. They are defined, rather, by their actions, by the ways that they operate. Is a leak to Alex Jones different from a leak to Maggie Haberman? As a political scientist I look at roles and functions and less at partisan loyalties. 

Our revised definition of the deep state would hence be: 

"Dynamic conspiratorial cabals and singletons drawn from persistent factions of government, former government employees and appointees, and elite members of finance, media and industry, that exploit the cult of secrecy and collude, often serving as sources for anonymous leaks of classified information to the media in order to influence the policies of the United States, often in defiance of the formal political process."

While I do not explicitly state that some deep state actors act in support of the elected government, saying that they often act in defiance of the formal political process does not say that they always act in defiance of the formal political process.

As I say, President Trump has his adherents within the factions of the deep state, and they do act to benefit his administration. 

A ZeroHedge article that incited me to write this analysis claims that factions within the current deep state are attempting to undermine the Presidency of Donald J. Trump, and they are actively seeking his overthrow. 

Such a development would not be unique in American politics, as we saw the assassination of President John F. Kennedy happen before our very eyes, and then witnessed the coverup with the empanelment of the Warren Commission

Other examples can be drawn, for example the Iran-Contra scandals that consumed the presidency of President Ronald Reagan, and the grandfather of all political conspiracies, Watergate, which saw an Assistant Director of the FBI, Mark Felt, as Deep Throat whispering into the ears of journalists Woodward and Bernstein in effecting yet another coup. 

It is interesting to me that some members of the FBI are repeatedly seen acting despite its apolitical culture for their own sometimes quite partisan and personal reasons. 

There are, for example, some observers who claim that disgraced former Director of the FBI James Comey undermined the political impartiality of that agency when he outlined numerous violations of federal statutes and then failed to recommend that Hillary Clinton and her aides be referred for indictment to the DOJ in a scandal now known as ServerGate.  

Those who are familiar with Mr. Comey's personal history understand that he is very much a Clinton loyalist, he acted repeatedly over many years in ways that benefited the Clinton political machine. 

Indeed, some analysts consider Mr. Comey a core participant in deep state resistance to the Trump administration, and it is in retrospect no surprise that he was fired in disgrace by President Trump. President Trump had no alternative. Some of Mr. Comey's FBI associates characterized him to me as a "viper."

Students of Watergate ask why Associate Director Mark Felt betrayed his country, though some defenders claim that his treason was motivated by love of country and intended to counteract abuses of executive branch power by the Nixon regime. 

In the end analysis, it appears that Mr. Felt's motives were quite pedestrian. This deep state singleton was mad that Nixon did not nominate him as Director after the death of J. Edgar Hoover, who was surely the ultimate deep state operator of all time. 

Was that the reason that Nixon was hounded out of office? Because a bureaucrat was mad at him? I must remember to ask Roger Stone (@RogerJStoneJr) this question. He witnessed those events at close range. 

We ask ourselves today, why are cabals within factions of the current deep state plaguing President Trump? The obvious reasons are partisan politics, ideological opposition to the political and cultural values that President Trump embodies, and both neocon and neoliberal preferences for Hillary Clinton, who would have facilitated a seamless consolidation of those factions that embedded themselves throughout government during the presidency of Barack Hussein Obama. 

Indeed, Obama regime loyalists now witness the Trump administration rolling back policies which they long labored to implement, like participation in the Trans-Pacific Partnership, or the Paris Climate Accord. As they gnash their teeth, they plot, and they leak, and they wage an orchestrated campaign to undermine the legitimacy of an elected president with palpable contempt for those deplorable Americans who voted him into office. 

One thing that confuses me is, President Trump appears to be throwing more money at the military industrial complex than even Madame Clinton would have. You would think that this would appease many deep state actors, particularly those from the defense industry. 

Apparently not, at least, not in this case. The predominate opposition deep state actors of this era appear to be acting primarily for partisan political reasons, exploiting the cult of secrecy, wielding weaponized classified information and illegal leaks. 

It all seems so petty to me. I used to work for the US government myself. We considered ourselves outside politics. We served in the executive branch at the convenience of the president, and we followed his directives in all things. Yes, at times, bureaucratic friction would be introduced when we did not like policies, but we did not presume to oppose a sitting president. 

This may be because the agency that I worked in, DEA, consisted during that era, the early 1990's, predominately of former military personnel. The military is historically and traditionally considered to be apolitical. Indeed, this is a defining characteristic of US political culture, one that we believe differentiates us from banana republics. 

I suspect that this is one of the primary reasons that the military as an institution is the most popular among the American electorate. It is perceived to be apolitical. 

The irony of course is that the Pentagon and the defense industry are hotbeds of deep state activity, in the endless battles over budgets, weapons systems, and contracts. 

Regardless, the American people perceive that the generals obey the executive branch, no matter how asinine our wars may be. 

And we are definitely fighting irrational wars now, in Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, Yemen, and Somalia. Nobody can explain why we are fighting those wars. Is it because the Pentagon wants those wars? For oil? For geopolitics? To justify its own existence and the financial windfall represented by the Trump administration? 

Is it to "knock the hell out of ISIS?" Terrorism increasingly appears to be an insufficient rationale for military conflict, terrorism is rather a pretext for more invasive domestic surveillance and enhanced security in many nations, justifying increased expenditures. 

While US government spokesmen said recently that US policy in Syria is focused on combatting ISIS, deep state actors succeeded in establishing regime change as an unstated strategic goal of the United States in Syria. 

I remind you that US forces are uninvited invaders in Syria, and they are acting without even an Authorization for the Use of Military Force (AUMF) from the Congress, much less a Declaration of War.

Nobody can explain what our overarching strategic goals are. Nobody can define simple "victory" in any of those wars. 

Some deep state actors are agitating for deeper military involvement in Syria, for a renewed effort in Afghanistan, and for an escalation of the long state of conflict between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States.

Our dispute with North Korea could erupt into open warfare at any time. That seems to suit some deep state actors just fine. 

Strange times. 

This article was adapted from a rant on my Facebook page, Magic Kingdom Dispatch, in response to an article on ZeroHedge




Wednesday, June 21, 2017

Do Not Worry About Bitcoin

Some in the Bitcoin community are dreading SegWit, short for Segregated Witness, and the imminent BIP148 upgrade to Bitcoin, scheduled to happen before August 1, 2017. 

BIP148 is not to be feared. Part of the network can choose to implement it and the other can retain the original software. As currently configured, BIP48 is a soft fork, meaning that the change can be partially implemented and adopted universally after a majority of network miners support it. 

SegWit2X, the current iteration of Segregated Witness, is scheduled for implementation on 21 July. It proposes to create a hard fork six months later, meaning that backward compatibility would not be feasible after that time, as unlike a soft fork a hard fork is not reconcilable. 

The fear is that this hard fork could cause a split in Bitcoin like the one that happened with Ethereum. There are two types of Ethereum, one of which is called Ethereum Classic, for obvious reasons.

SegWit is a development by the longstanding team supporting Bitcoin Core. What SegWit does, among many things, is it increases Bitcoin's block size limit, addressing concerns about scalability.

The blockchain consists of consecutive blocks of transactions, it is a running ledger of all transactions that have taken place using Bitcoin since its inception. The blocks currently are 1MG in size, this limit is hard coded into the software.

Bitcoin watchers perceive that the blockchain is struggling to keep up with the number of transactions that users are executing every minute. Transactions are getting processed, but delays are creeping into the system, and the problem is becoming worse, undermining one of the primary advantages of blockchain technology: rapid response.

SegWit2X increases the block size to 2MB, though actual block sizes could exceed 4MB, as SegWit also includes an increase to the block size limit. Most analysts expect the blockchain will increase to between 2 and 2.1MB immediately after SegWit is implemented.

I do not worry about these issues. If I have to wait a few days before Coinbase credits my account, I do not stress about it. They honor the price of Bitcoin at the time of purchase, and nobody gets cheated.

I am confident that these issues will work themselves out. Bitcoin is a technology with a limitless potential, and everybody using it wants it to succeed. So it will.

All that we users need to worry about is the price of Bitcoin. At the time that I wrote the early draft of this article, Bitcoin was plummeting, it dropped all the way down to $2214, and I consequently bought more.

I doubled down.

Of course, I am a very small investor. My total holdings at the time of this writing amounted to only $288. If I lost it all, it would suck, but I can absorb a $288 loss.

My bet was repaid. Bitcoin rebounded to $2752 by the time of this update. It appears to be rising strongly, and it is possible that this rally will continue. 

I am betting that the price of Bitcoin will rise. There are just too many favorable structural factors, particularly in Asia, to be ignored.

The original rant that this article is based on was posted on my Facebook page Magic Kingdom Dispatch on · June 15 at 9:24pm · 



Monday, June 19, 2017

Hackers Will Hack

I wonder whether British Prime Minister Theresa May is as misinformed as she appears? Does she actually hope to control the internet? Apparently nobody told her that it is too late to even try. 

Bureaucrats who plot to impose backdoors in our software pretend that those backdoors cannot be cracked by hackers or by intelligence agencies. It may become a game of whack a mole, but no backdoor will remain uncompromised.

It has to be asked whether technocrats actually believe that the public will use software that is compromised? Secure open source solutions will emerge to compete, and we will vote with our wallets to use them instead. ProtonMail is one example, as is the GPG Suite for Apple Mail. Surely they know this. 

Even if companies like Microsoft and Google can be suborned to facilitate government backdoors, they will fear inevitable exposure. The inevitability of their exposure includes a forbidding economic and reputational cost. It is this fact, which software companies like Microsoft and Google understand very well, that informs their own resistance to government imposed backdoors.

Considering recent events, does anyone actually believe that backdoors will not be exposed by patriots within intelligence agencies? Never forget that there are factions within the deep state. Not all of them conspire to tear down President Donald J. Trump. 

Some of them are cypherpunks, loyal to the digital literati, to we, the digital proletariat. Some of them are sympathetic to the alt-right, and to the alternative media that you are reading at this precise moment. 

Even President Donald J. Trump​ has his own adherents in the deep state, and they are leaking to 4chan, to InfoWars, to Steve Pieczenik, to Roger Stone, to Mike Cernovich, to Jack Posobiec, to David Seaman, and even to me

Consider the last ten years of breaches published by WikiLeaks. Any backdoors created in encryption regimes will be compromised. Vault 7 proves it. Snowden proves it. Manning proves it. The Shadow Brokers prove it. Even  the recently arrested NSA leaker Reality Winning proves it. Leakers will leak. Daily deep state leaks to The New York Times and to The Washington Post prove it. 

We all see where this is going. In response, politicians will abuse Terrorism™ to justify huge investments in surveillance technology. Our compliant Congress will allocate massive black budgets, failing to exercise any degree of effective oversight, and these surveillance technologies will devastate the civil liberties of everybody else. Meaning us. 

Our best defense, of course, is the factor that governments fear and seek to undermine: encryption. 

If you correspond with me, you will notice that I include a PGP fingerprint at the bottom of every email. 

1B92CCE6D7FD8AC47E0B661DAC2E605DAA735DF0

On all my web pages, I link to KeyBase.io. KeyBase makes encrypted correspondence dead simple. Anybody can do it. 

If I need to discuss something sensitive, something financial, something private, I can do so. And I make no apologies for it, and I make no explanations. I reserve the right to be private, and it will be difficult for any state, any government, any authority, to stop me. 

What Mrs. Theresa May may not understand is that the self-repairing character of the internet means that it literally cannot be controlled. The internet routes around what it interprets as damage, and our packets take the cheapest route to their destination. This is inherent in its design.

The clearnet internet can be shadowed, and the Snowden disclosures confirm that NSA is using TREASUREMAP to do just that. NSA's FAIRVIEW confirms that all domestic internet traffic can be sniffed. But this does not mean that the global clearnet can be controlled. 

This slide from a briefing deck exfiltrated by Edward Snowden, just one example from the family jewels of NSA, explains TREASUREMAP, which seeks to shadow the entirety of the global internet. It was classified (TS) Top Secret, (SI) Signals Intelligence, related to the US intelligence community and to the SIGINT alliance Five Eye (FVEY). 

Mrs. May may succeed in imposing encryption bans within the UK, balkanizing a geographical segment of the clearnet. The Great Firewall of China, the digital wall, is one model. But even the Great Firewall has gaping technological holes in it. 

The Chinese literati use encryption, Virtual Private Networks (VPN) and TOR, The Onion Router, to defeat their Great Wall. "To stay unblocked in China is an endless rat race," one operator of VPNs said

Someday, the UN may succeed in imposing encryption bans worldwide. But there will always be a cabal of the digital proletariat who will find ways around it, through it, beneath it. Software engineers, network engineers, hackers, will distribute encryption solutions, software code classified as munitions, and no government, no intelligence agency, no human agency, can stop them.

Those of us who insist on using encryption at our whim cannot be stopped. How can I make such a statement with such confidence? Because of the deep web

We must all remember that the deep web represents the majority of the internet, analogous to an iceberg. It is unmapped. It is unmanageable. It is, literally, chaos. 

All manner of malfeasance happens on the deep web. Drug deals, child porn, death porn, software exploits, false IDs. But also, much legitimate private business. Dissidents in totalitarian countries use the deep web, as do government cyber specialists. 

The deep web is accessible to users of the encrypted network TOR.  While the US Naval Research Laboratory invented TOR, it is too late for any government agency to control it. Again, a genie got out of the bottle, and it cannot be put back in. 

No government can block the deep web. Indeed the biggest obstacle to wider usage of the deep web is the technical complexity involved in accessing it. 

Yes, governments succeed in compromising some dark web services. Silk Road and Silk Road 2.0 are the obvious examples. But how many more remain undetected? How many remain flourishing bastions of criminality? Nobody knows. 

Global surveillance is not the solution. Abrogating our civil liberties are not the solution.

Global surveillance will fail. Hackers will ensure that it fails, whether they are black hat hackers or white hat hackers or grey hat hackers. 

NSA tries to identify them and to hire them, and this is smart, but even those problematic geniuses cannot be trusted or controlled all the time. Vault 7 proves that. Snowden proves that. 

Who will you bet on? On the government hackers in intelligence agencies? Or on some 14 year old genius pecking at his keyboard in his parent's basement eating Cheetos? 

I got to go with the kid. Hackers will hack. 

It is part of the human condition. 

Originally published on Facebook by Estéban Trujillo de Gutiérrez · June 7 at 3:50am ·

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